NOLI "Kabayan" de Castro- Is He The Next Philippine President?

Once again, Vice-President Noli ‘Kabayan’ De Castro is finding himself in the thick of guessing games amid fresh attempts to force a change in administration.As Arroyo quit-calls resurfaced following Rodolfo “Jun” Lozada’s revelations on the $329 million National Broadband Deal-ZTE project, speculations abound on De Castro’s next move.When is he finally crossing over to the other side? Will he finally make that great leap of faith--or fate--that seems to tease him every now and then? Will he ever cross over?Doubts remainAccording to Lingayen-Dagupan Archbishop Oscar Cruz, some sectors of society have reservations about him taking over the reins of government.“Many feel that the vice-president might not be able to fulfill his sworn duty,” Cruz said a day after he and few other bishops met with members of a broad group of organizations that are pushing for Arroyo’s resignation. Being underestimated is not exactly new to De Castro, and ironically, it seems he thrives from it. By keeping everyone guessing what’s really on his mind, he keeps his critics and detractors off-balance.VP now more aggressiveOf late, however, the Vice-President has been less coy about his position on issues and plans.While other presidential wannabes have signified their intention to seek the presidency in 2010 and have engaged in positioning months earlier, it was only early this year that De Castro dropped broad hints he will join the race.“Marami at malaki pa ang magagawa ko para matugunan ang mga pangangailanan ng ating mga kababayan ( I can do more and do bigger things to address the needs of our countrymen),” he said in a statement Jan. 6.Political analyst Carmelo Areza observed that De Castro has lately shown signs of aggressiveness that comes with confidence.“He has been forthright with his declaration of preparedness to handle the job of running the country,” he said.He said it was a way of telling pundits that he should not be discarded in the political equation.Areza said De Castro, in his three years as Cabinet member, has passed the learning curve of governance and now wants to show to everyone, including the skeptics, “that he is no pushover.” More independentAnother sign of change: De Castro’s recent statements showing independence of mind from the administration. The NBN-ZTE controversy is an eye-opener.Last week, on Feb. 12, while other Palace officials were calling for an end to the Senate hearing on the NBN-ZTE scandal, De Castro disagreed with them and expressed support for the chamber’s probe.He also praised Lozada’s “guts” in exposing the anomalous deal.“I admire his rare courage…because it is not only his reputation that’s on the line but also his family, career and safety,” De Castro said. He observed that Lozada may be a credible witness, but he “needs to answer more questions.”De Castro also said that those found responsible in the mess should face prosecution.On Feb. 13, De Castro issued a stronger statement, saying that “nobody is above the law” and that “everybody from top to bottom found directly involved in the anomaly should be charged.”In all his public statements, De Castro has been stressing that he is the duly constitutional successor in case there is a vacancy in the presidency. He has said repeatedly: “That is what is stated in the Constitution. If the President is no longer able to lead, it is the vice-president that will assume.”De Castro also expressed openness to engaging civil society and business groups for as long as “it will be for the good of all and not only for the interest of a few.Confidence boostersTwo factors may have contributed to the change in De Castro’s new-found confidence:-his constant high approval rating,-the junking this week of the electoral protest filed by rival Senator Loren Legarda in the vice-presidential race.Since he entered politics in 2001, De Castro’s approval rating has remained bullish, unlike other presidential wannabes.The latest survey Social Weather Station’s survey from Nov, 30 to Dec. 3 showed him ahead of Senate President Manuel Villar Jr. and Senators Loren Legarda and Mar Roxas as preferred successor to Arroyo. De Castro got the nod of 30 percent of the respondents; Villar, 27 percent; Legarda, 23 percent and Roxas, 20 percent. (See SWS survey).Elections lawyer Romulo Macalintal, who defended de Castro in the Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET), said the junking of Legarda’s electoral protests “vindicates” De Castro and finally puts to rest any questions about his legitimacy.“He can face the entire country knowing that he won the vice-presidency fair and clean,” Macalintal said.Areza said de Castro “knows that he’s got mass appeal” and the surveys only confirm it. The general public also seems to appreciate his recurrent call to respect the Constitution.VP acceptable as transition president?De Castro may have convinced the PET and the approval of the public, but what about the civil society?Former representative and Akbayan chair emeritus Loretta-Ann Rosales conceded that many in the broad sector of civil groups “don’t think that de Castro is capable.” Besides, they think that De Castro “is too close to the President and that Arroyo would not have made it as president without his help.”Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (BAYAN) secretary-general Renato Reyes pointed out that De Castro chose to remain a fence-sitter in all the efforts to oust Arroyo on charges of cheating and corruption. “We believe it would be unfair if he would just benefit without lifting any finger,” he said. At the height of the Hello Garci wiretap scandal that almost toppled Arroyo’s presidency, De Castro chose to stick it out with the President.Reyes said some civil groups believe a De Castro presidency won’t be any different from Arroyo’s.“That’s what we want to avoid, a repeat of EDSA 2,” Reyes said, referring to Archbishop Angel Lagdameo statement where he described the 2001 people power as a failure in terms of genuine reforms in governance.Yet, a De Castro presidency is gaining approval even from initial cynics. Rosales, for one, said she believes that De Castro becoming President is acceptable “if only in interim capacity” until the 2010 presidential elections.“I see no reason why de Castro should not succeed Arroyo, if he can play the role of a caretaker and be willing to consult with other sectors,” Rosales said.Some members of the Makati Business Club have also expressed support for a De Castro presidency.LoyaltyBut the crucial question is: Will he turn his back on Arroyo?BAYAN’s Reyes told abs-cbnnews.com/Newsbreak that the issue of succession and De Castro’s acceptability has not been discussed in meetings of anti-Arroyo forces. “The initial discussions have not reached that level,” Reyes said.Former Senator Ralph Recto, one of de Castro’s closest advisers, told abs-cbn-news.com/Newsbreak that “it would be out of character for de Castro” to abandon Arroyo and join calls for her resignation.Recto, a member of the so-called Wednesday group of former and incumbent senators—De Castro, Manuel Villar, Francisco Pangilinan, Joker Arroyo—that meets regularly said it was his impression that de Castro knows “that he was elected vice-president, that he will not do anything to get the President out, that his job is to assume in case of vacancy.”A De Castro adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that for sure, the Vice-President “will not instigate” to have Arroyo ousted, but at the same time, “he will not decline to be President.” The adviser said de Castro will not do anything “to pull the rug on the President.”Definitely, Areza said “De Castro wont do a Gloria,” referring to Arroyo’s move in 2000 where she quit Cabinet and joined the calls for Estrada’s ouster.